How Trump’s Tariffs Threaten China’s Export Recovery

China's Exports Grew 6.7% in November 2024 Compared to the Same Period Last Year, Reaching $312 Billion (R$ 1.86 Trillion), the Highest Level Since September 2022, According to Official Data Released Last Tuesday.

This performance was driven by strong global demand and advanced orders, particularly from U.S. importers concerned about potential higher tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump’s administration.

According to Business Insider, this growth helped reverse the 4.6% decline recorded in 2023 and consolidated a 5.1% increase in cumulative exports up to October 2024. Lynn Song, an economist at ING for Greater China, highlighted the result as the biggest positive surprise for the Chinese economy this year.

Despite the progress, the sustainability of this growth remains uncertain. Analysts at BofA Securities noted that the high export volume may have been influenced by importers stockpiling in advance, which could lead to a decline in the coming quarters. Furthermore, the impact of new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration remains a significant concern for Chinese trade.

On the domestic front, challenges persist. Chinese imports fell by 3.9% in November compared to the same period in 2023, reflecting weakened domestic demand as consumers seek more affordable alternatives. This result fell short of the 8.5% growth forecast by economists surveyed by Reuters, indicating economic pressures in the domestic scenario.